Deaths per day is a lagging indicator that is not influenced by the testing rate. I’m averaging the past 7 days to smooth noise, and to eliminate a pattern of higher values toward the end of the week.
Monthly Archives: April 2020
Encouraging Antibody Results from LA
LA Public Health just released early results from their antibody testing suggesting that between 2.8% and 5.6% of the population has been infected. With 619 deaths, this implies a fatality rate between 0.41% and 0.28%. The influenza death rate is often quoted as 0.1%, but that comes from dividing the number of flu deaths (34 …
New Infections Per-Day
I added a new plot that shows the percent of the population that is newly infected every day. I take the average of the previous four days to smooth the curves. The per-day curves show that China’s second peak is starting to recede. Italy is past its first peak. Maybe Germany and the Netherlands and …
We’re seeing a nice Bend
We’re seeing a consistent and dramatic drop in the average daily growth rate everywhere I’m tracking, except India. The 1-week growth percentage numbers are all smaller than the 2-week numbers. The dashed lines all lie below the dotted lines. This is very good news. I suspect (hope) that the India increased growth rate is due …