If I’m Infected, Will I Die?

The chance of dying from the infection depends on the ratio of fatalities to infections. We only know the ratio of fatalities to confirmed infections (around 2%). The number of unconfirmed infections is the big unknown. If many people are infected but have not been tested, then the ratio of fatalities to infections could be significantly lower than 2%. Countries with higher testing rates tend to have lower fatality percentages. I suspect this is because they identify more mild cases that are not tracked in other countries.

As we ramp up testing, the ratio of fatalities to confirmed infections will drop. I hope the ratio drops a lot because that means we all have a better chance of surviving if we become infected.

Published by Brent Gregory

I make software for designing computer guts.

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